January 4, 2007 -
Don't place that Bully 2 pre-order just yet.
When it launched in October, reviewers gave Rockstar's controversial PS2 title Bully high marks. Down in Miami, attorney Jack Thompson's bizarre attempt to have Bully declared a public nuisance was at least as entertaining as the game itself.
But don't expect Bully 2, says a leading financial analyst who covers the video game industry.
Michael Pachter (left), Managing Director of Research for Wedbush Morgan Securities, told GamePolitics:
Bully sales trailed off pretty dramatically in November. In October, the regular edition of the game sold 125,000 units (I think that the collector's edition sold another 30,000 units...) in the U.S., so we should assume it sold a combined 250,000 worldwide.
In November, Bully sold 105,000 units... My guess is that the game did NOT sell particularly well at holiday, so probably another 150,000 units worldwide in December. We expect it to sell another 200,000 or so units over the next few months, and to disappear from retail shelves.
Those estimates total 800,000 units at an average wholesale price of around $30, so it will likely generate around $24 million in revenues. Since the game took three years to develop, it likely cost Take-Two close to $15 million in R&D, and my guess is that the company did no better than to break even. I would NOT expect a sequel.