Bully 2 ??? Industry Analyst Says No

January 4, 2007 -


Don't place that Bully 2 pre-order just yet. 

When it launched in October, reviewers gave Rockstar's controversial PS2 title Bully high marks. Down in Miami, attorney Jack Thompson's bizarre attempt to have Bully declared a public nuisance was at least as entertaining as the game itself.

But don't expect Bully 2, says a leading financial analyst who covers the video game industry.

Michael Pachter (left), Managing Director of Research for Wedbush Morgan  Securities, told GamePolitics:
Bully sales trailed off pretty dramatically in November. In October, the regular edition of the game sold 125,000 units (I think that the collector's edition sold another 30,000 units...) in the U.S., so we should assume it sold a combined 250,000 worldwide.

In November, Bully sold 105,000 units... My guess is that the game did NOT sell particularly well at holiday, so probably another 150,000 units worldwide in December. We expect it to sell another 200,000 or so units over the next few months, and to disappear from retail shelves.

Those estimates total 800,000 units at an average wholesale price of around $30, so it will likely generate around $24 million in revenues. Since the game took three years to develop, it likely cost Take-Two close to $15 million in R&D, and my guess is that the company did no better than to break even. I would NOT expect a sequel.

Comments

Re: Bully 2 ??? Industry Analyst Says No

first of all,it doesnt matter what this dude thinks,it only matters what we,the gamers think,fuck sales number,if the sales were so badly failing,why did it become a greatest hit in under a year?i didnt play it until 2008,but it was amazing just the same,please make it,because i have some great i deas for it,

name-Bully:Mass Destruction systems-PS2,PSP,Wii,PS3(now its bound to make sales!!!) speacial features-if you have a PS2,or wii saved file,you can upload it,and have all clothes,money,and room weapons you had.

setting-town of bullworth,school,new school,new sections,new town areas.

all the same people,but a new school,in a newbry town builds rivalries,new kids in the other school,

bullies-Tommy,Benjamin,Joshua,Mitchell,Mike,Clide(black), girl-Bethony(black)

Nerds-Morrie,Robert,Orrin,Brenden,Johnny,Logan,girl-Tiffany  Geeks(new!,read comics all the time,draw all the time)-Morgan,Tyler,REX,Shad(black),girl-Kylie

Jocks-Andrew,Kyler,Michael(black),Theodore,Jeffeory,Mthew,girl-Michelle

Goths(new!were all black,purple,blue,easy to make friends with)-Jonathon,Corey,Taylor,Talon,Tim,,girl-Sahra

Emos-(new!always stay in the dark,walk around at night,always crying,ready pussy poetry)-Raptor,Blackheart,Betrayed,King of shaodows,girl-Kasey

Preps-Ryan,Taylor,Dalton,Derwood,Hunter-girls-Currie,Rain,Sandreen

Greasors,no new greasors

Hippies(new!were faggot camo shirts,when they see you fight,they say,fight the system dude,yeah!)-Spencer,Homer,Lenny,Carl,Rob,Jon-girls-Lois

Drugies(new!basically like townies,except their alway getting high)leader-???? secondary-????

thats all,if you thought this was good ideas,message me at Myspace URL-noxiecwy,Or email-noxie1@yahoo.com

 

Re: Bully 2 ??? Industry Analyst Says No

Hey guys! I`m from germany and even here we think its high time for another BULLY game. I hope it will be released someday, even if i know its pretyy small chance rockstar releases it before 2010. i would buy a playstation3 for this game, if it is not available für PS2. BULLY 2 would be worth it.

Re: Bully 2 ??? Industry Analyst Says No

fu guys there should be a nother bully because i really loved that 1

Re: Bully 2 ??? Industry Analyst Says No

IDEA 1 :THE GRAPHICS                                                                                        

The graphics should be a little more realistic. People LOVE games with good graphics if you let out a bully 2 with really good graphics i bet you would have a lot more bully fans

IDEA 2: THE MISSIONS

Some people think bully 1 was just too short so if bully 2 has more missions on the game. even more people would enjoy playing bully

AND IDEA 3: THE VIDEO GAME ITSELF

You guys should make bully 2 people are begging for one it is a video game makers dream to have people beg them to make more video games

Re: Bully 2 ??? Industry Analyst Says No

Hmm, what if it was all an diabolical scheme by Pete, Where half of the teachers and students have left, with new students and teachers who dont know Jimmy come in, and Pete betrays Jimmy?

Or if it were a PREQUEL to bully! (lol, Bully:Elementary edition)

[...] Despite a strong first month in sales (estimated at 250,000 units worldwide) that was backed by critical acclaim, Bully’s popularity at retail has quickly dwindled. Wedbush Morgan Securities Managing Director of Research Michael Pachter projects Bully will peak around 800,000 units sold; generating roughly $24 million in revenue. While that might sound rich, Pachter calls it a wash for Take-Two. “I would NOT expect a sequel,” Pachter emphasized to GamePolitics. [...]

[...] more: Bully 2 not gonna happen according to analyst Permalink | Email this post | Leave a comment comments [...]

Kinda sounds like the stuff Will Wright talks about in some of his meetings in 2006. About how much it costs to make a game these days....

Mmmmm prehaps if he knew what he was talking about I would listen to him,gamedom is fickle place its alot like hollywood in some respects the better stuff being swept under the rug so corperations can cling to cheaper to produce more shallow games,and sometimes they are just more shallow,and because of it you have spotty sales and and larger corperations eating up smaller devs and games to hide away for another day when you look hard at it ,its not pretty....I hope sometime in the 7th gen gamedom gets out of the shallow 20's phaze....but....I only see them digging into it more....

I for one highly doubt there will be a seuqel, I mean where do you go from Bully in terms of plot and structure without it being very similar to bully? The kid in college doesn't sound very entertaining and a new person in a new school won't work either. I mean in grand theft auto you had new cities new people and other things what can you do with Bully?

This is about money? I thought it was about the love.

Analysts shmanlysts, what do they know? I want a Bully: College Years game please!

I think that Rockstar Games should make a sequal just to spite Jack Thompson and piss him off. They should definately make a sequal because Jack Thompson is skating on thin ice. If they made a sequal, and he tried to ban it and threw another hissy fit, he might lose his license to practice law. That would be awesome. As gamers, I think we should all try to get Bully, so they will make another one and that would set some bait for Wacko Jacko.

If they make another one, Jack Thompson might try to ban it and lose his license. Let's all buy the first one and maybe even send letters to Rockstar Games telling them what a great game it is. Hey, everybody, think about this. It could finally end Wacko Jacko's legal carreer if he bites at the sequal. He has been reprimanded in the past by the Florida Bar Association and he has not fully recovered yet from his loss in the first Bully case. You all want to get his license revoked? This is the way to do it. You know he'll bite if they make another Bully game. Spread the word. Let's all buy Bully and ask Rockstar Games to make a sequal.

@Psychonaut -- Old news. (Page down from the main page here.)

@Dog Welder, Psychonaut...

This is one of those JT stories I had but declined to print. It's just bluster...

I'm surprised it got such wide play

Responding to the guy saying Bully might be a better renter. I played through the game in 15 hours without any cheats, guides, or even trying to beat the game in record time and I've never played more than a few minutes in any GTA game.

I'm guessing someone familiar with GTA series and trying to finish quickly could beat the game in less than 10 hours, so rent for a few days and play a few hours a day and you could beat it easily.

Why would they need a sequel anyways? Unless the sequel itself is a different storyline like GTA3/Vice City, I don't see the reason for another Bully game.

Then again, a lot of crappy games have made sequels. Why not Bully?

Regrettably, I think you all should be made aware of this ...

http://www.jolt.co.uk/index.php?articleid=7834

Yeah, sorry. Looks like we'll have a cheap drama in our hands again.

If it's not selling well (I doubt this, as it HAS been in the top 10 in GameInformer recently) I suspect that it is less the subject and content and more being overshadowed by Gears of War, the Wii launch, and the PS3 launch. Pretty easy for a ps2 game to get lost in all that.

GameStop lists Bully as #5 best seller in PS2 titles, right behind Call of Duty 3.
-- If your wiimote goes snicker-snack, check your wrist-strap...

Obviously this guy is not a gamer, otherise he would know that far too many bad games get sequels.

In reference to my earlier comment, i am not saying that Bully is a bad game in fact i own it and love it, just saying that a lot of games that dont deserve a sequel end up getting them, so its not crazy to think that Bully would get one especially since Rockstar has cash to burn.

AdamW: I've seen it for $59.99 in Canada. Sorry for the confusion.

And I wouldn't be surprised if the sales of Bully in the UK are actually far less than predicted and the ones in the US are more.

In a way, it was very kind of a lot of people to give Bully all that free publicity or it might never have made the amount it did.

Good catch, Daniel.

Between his admitted bias against the game and his active imagination (lots of "my guess is..."), I'd take this with a sizable grain of salt.

One more thing, I thought I saw comments from that analyst on GP before

While everyone seems to be buzzing about Bully of late, at least one respected financial analyst thinks sales of the game won't match the hype. Bully is scheduled for October release on the PS2.

Michael Pachter, who covers the video game industry for Wedbush Morgan, told Red Herring, "I think it sounds like a dopey game. But I've always thought that."

Pachter explained that video games generally fall into categories, and added that titles like Grand Theft Auto, World of Warcraft and Halo are "escapist" and "aspirational."

"I don't see how Bully is aspirational for anyone but 14-year-olds," Pachter said. "I don't get how this is going to resonate with (Rockstar's) constituency."

Pachter made similar comments to GamePolitics last summer. At the time, Pachter said, "Bully will be a stupid game, and will rock in England. Doubt it sells well in the U.S."

Marshie: The game debuted at $39.99, not 59.99. Though a price drop would bring in a lot of new players regardless. Especially since it WAS a good game.

I'm split on the sequel issue. I enjoyed Bully a good deal, flaws and all. And I actually wanted the story to go on longer than it did, which is always the mark of a good game; I enjoyed GTA 3/VC/SA, but most of the time, I was glad to see them end.

I'm not sure there's really more story to tell, though, unless they go the GTA route and have a new story about a new character in a new place.

I don't really see a reason for a direct sequel to Bully. The game is pretty conclusive. It would feel to fake if for some reason every year some new kid shows up to disrupt the peace that Jimmy creates.

December is the biggest month of the year and the numbers are not out yet, Canis Edit Canem in the top 10 in the UK...I love Bully, it's better than GTA, most of my buddies love the game too...It doesn't matter what some financial analyst say, it's all up to Rockstar and they must be happy with how well the game was reviewed and all, me think we see a sequel and 800,000 if comes true is better than what 90% of games sell, just my 2 cents...

I absolutly love Bully, and there needs to be a sequel...

I just wish R* would give us a next gen Manhunt sequel... yes I'm a sick puppy, but bar the violence that was such a good story driven stealth game.

As for Bully, I enjoyed it at first, but got bored of it halfway through. Just seemed each season to be the same thing, albeit ending in some different style of punch-up. Still finished it to see what would happen, but had no interest to go back to it... which was shocking for a R* game.

Just looked up Blockbuster's top 10, and Bully is still there as of Dec 31st. Gamefly lists Bully as it's #1 most popular rental. Amazon.com lists it in it's top 10 PS2 games (not including hardware) for this hour.

For supposedly disappointing sales, the industry must be in serious trouble if Bully is considered to be doing crappy overall, yet still beating out many other titles... ;)
-- If your wiimote goes snicker-snack, check your wrist-strap...

When you sell a game named Bully, you take the calculated risk of losing sales because of uptight, superconservative parents. Would Bully sell as well if it were a game about the life and times of Teddy Roosevelt?

I still find it frightening that parents will buy their kids GTA, named after a crime that you can go to jail for, maybe even get executed for if you do it enough, but a little red light goes on telling them that a game called Bully, a much less serious but still serious crime, is evil and must be banned.

Michael Pachter = Full of hot air. He's made dozens of predictions that have been proven completely wrong and traditionally doesn't like Take-Two. Every number cited by him in this article are guesses only and he has no real ida what the game has sold or what it cost to develop. It was built on existing Rockstar technology which means the R&D was likely a lot less than he claims. Perhaps the game hasn't met Take-Two internal profit projections, but I'm quite certain it made money and if not, will in the near future. But this analyst's word (and most of them to be honest) is not something to take as gospel.

I disagree, i think that there will be a sequel to Bully, in fact, I think that there will be 3 sequels to Bully. The reason why i would think that is because, Bully took place in the freshman year of Jimmy Hopkins, so i think that the sequels (if there will be) would take place in the softmore, juinior, and senior year of Jimmy Hopkins. Besides, sales of a game did not translate into the making of a sequel for Rockstar. Did any of you guys play GTA I or II?

The problem with his analysis is that the game has only been out for three months. While I'm sure it's not going out on a limb to say that the majority of copies of a game are sold at the game's launch, the sales numbers for Bully will also no doubt hit that magical 1,000,000 mark in the next few months. Once it hits the 1,000,000 mark, it becomes eligible for the Greatest Hits collection.

So, while someone might not have picked it up at the retail price of $59.99, they'll be infinitely more willing to shell out $29.99 for the game. Presumably Sony lowers their own take on Greatest Hits versions of games so that the publishers have a reason to buy into the lowered price, which means that while the developer's take per game might be reduced, they're still recieving cash they might not normally make.

My guess is that Bully is going to be the sort of game which eventually pulls in a profit.

Curious, maybe it was a good renter. I kept getting emails from Blockbuster every month, and they always listed Bully in the top 10 rentals.
-- If your wiimote goes snicker-snack, check your wrist-strap...

The discrepancy in numbers is between dev costs and sales gross.

Of gross, the platform holder (Sony in this case) take their large licensing chunk, the retailers and distributors take their markup, and the publisher (Take 2) get their fees. So it's quite reasonable to assume that Rockstar at the bottom of the dev chain will have just broken even with that analysis.

What isn't reasonable is to assume that breaking even is a bad case for a sequel. Profit isn't widespread in gaming (that is, profit at the developer level). Margins are very thin when you get on the ground, and frankly staying alive at that level is a good enough excuse to sign a project. It keeps everyone involved working.

Bear in mind that part of that dev expenditure was also in asset gain, involving tools, skills and hardware that they get to use next time.

Whether Bully is judged strong enough to warrant a sequel is likely more down to how strong they reckon the property is, plus the historical fact that sequels very rarely outsell their predecessors.

What Pachter doesn't take into account is R&D costs spent on re-usable assets.

Not surprising, since he knows next to nothing about gaming, gamers and developing games (he's a number cruncher).

I don't, of course, know how much, if at all, of the 3 years spent on Bully development were spent on developing re-usable assets (e.g. refining 3D engines, etc.), so Pachter may still be correct about his assessment, purely by accident though.

Well nuts, I was hoping for another Bully. Course, if Rockstar wants to make it, damnit they'll make it.

@ Aniki21

That's what I like about Bully. You're not the only one there.
In fact, I've gotten a hobby of disrupting bullies ingame in the middle of their bullying, to then have the precincts jump on them like hungry lions. >:)

So long as they carry some of the Bully gameplay over to GTA4, I'll be happy. I was starting to feel a little weird, being the only person in Liberty City (supposedly the most corrupt place in America) who the police paid attention to. It was nice to see other kids being busted by the prefects rather than them just having some weird vendetta against me personally.

I'm going to assume that there are some hidden costs in there. Either that, or a margin of $9 million is considered "breaking even" in the videogame industry.

It's just as well. I'm not even sure if I'm going to play the first one. Sadly, I don't have the time to play every single game like I used to.

[...] » Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has had a good week, providing data for Gamespot’s hugely tedious piece on Take-Two’s finances. And his thought that there probably won’t be a sequel to Bully, possibly originally on Game Politics, got him coverage pretty much everywhere. Well, he should know, clearly. [...]

http://www.game.co.uk/browse.aspx?cat=9

Note best-sellers list on the right. GAME being the biggest games retail store in the UK.

[...] Speaking to Game Politics, industry analyst Michael Pachter commented that Rockstar’s school life adventure game Bully won’t be receiving a sequel. The reason? Sluggish sales. The game sold over 800,000 units, and even though that’s quite a lot, it cost Take-Two close to $15 million in R&D, implying that they “did no better than to break even.” [...]

[...] Bully 2 ??? Industry Analyst Says No [GamePolitics] [...]

[...] Bully 2 ??? Industry Analyst Says No [GamePolitics] [...]

Analyst apologizes to Take-Two, wants Bully sequel

While Bully was a slight departure from the established GTA franchise that Take Two Interactive are known for, it was received very well. By critics, by consumers, even by analyst Michael Pachter. He will be the topic for this post. See, initially, he was quoted as saying that sales of Bully won't merit a sequel. How would you like those words cooked, Pachter, before we force them back into your mouth? Nah, we won't do that, because you apologized like a human being.

"Please make sure you print my apology to Take Two - I have been consistently wrong about this title. I thought it would be stupid, and it was fun; I thought it would get poor reviews, and it got solid 90s; and I thought it would bomb, while it now appears to be a million unit seller. As a result, I did not expect a sequel, while now I have to acknowledge that a sequel is a possibility."

Pachter makes mention of the GTA4 engine as a base for Bully 2 (should there be one), so we have to wonder if that would be a good engine to use for a more, er, localized non-linear game (a school as opposed to a city). What do you guys think? Sequel or no? Would you like to see more Bully action on the PS3?


read it at http://www.ps3fanboy.com/2007/01/16/analyst-apologizes-to-take-two-wants...
 
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