Xbox 360 Failure Rate? Do the Math

July 6, 2007 -
Now that Microsoft has done the right thing about the Xbox 360's rampant hardware problems, one key question remains:

What is the failure rate for the system? MS won't say. The Seattle Times quotes MS games boss Robbie Bach (left):
Suffice it to say that with a billion-dollar charge and the focus we're putting on this that it's a meaningful number.

While normal console failures are apparently in the sub-5% range, some reports have estimated that 360's throw the red rings at a rate as high as 33%.

Here are the numbers that are known. The Times (and other sites) are reporting that MS has shipped 11.6 million Xbox 360's to date, but the failure rate remains a mystery. The addition of a three-year warranty for the rings of death failure is expected to cost MS a cool billion dollars, so:
(11,600,000 * X) * Y = 1,000,0000,000

...where 11.6m is the number of systems shipped; X is the failure rate and Y is the total cost to MS per replaced unit. This works out to:
Y=86/X 

Now, math is not especially GP's strong suit, but if each repair (Y) costs MS $100, that translates to a staggering failure rate of 86%.

At $200, the failure rate is 43%. At $300 it's 29%. At $400, it's 22%

At the high end, the $400 repair cost on a 22% failure rate is very unlikely. Since that is the current system's MSRP, why bother to repair?  They could just send you a new 360 to replace your dead one.

On the other end, the 86% scenario seems pretty extreme (perhaps not if you're one of the unfortunates who have lost multiple 360's to the dreaded rings).

There is a lot of behind-the-scenes stuff we can't know here. But, based on the numbers, a failure rate between 29% and 43% would not be unreasonable. So maybe those 33% reports aren't so far off the mark, after all.

Digg!

Comments

CONTACT SEC.GOV CONTACT INVESTORS PAGES RELEASE THE TRUTH! I NOW AWAIT MY FOURT RETURN TO GO BACK TO MC ALLEEN TEXAS WITH IS NOT MICROSOFT BUT A COMPANY CALLED JABIL JABIL.COM THEY RECENTLY PURCHASED A COMPANY IN INDIA? YOU KNOW THE PEOPLE YOU TALK TO WHEN YOU HAVE A PROBLEM!! IF ONE XBOX360 FAILS THEY ALL WILL? MICROSOFT CANT WAIT UNTILL YOUR THREE YEARS IS UP CAN YOU?

MAJORS@XBOX.COM BACH@360.COM KEEP THESE CLOWNS CHECKING THEIR EMAIL. THEY ARE MAKING MILLIONS WHILE WE COMPLAIN?

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You can get the gadget here: http://tinyurl.com/2qul3c

Check out the video they have on the page.

Cheers

Marko Fando
 
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TechnogeekThe constant conflation of "you shouldn't do this" as a personal guideline and "you shouldn't do this" as something with the force of law is really getting tiresome. Lawful Neutral was garbage in D&D, and it's garbage in real life.07/01/2015 - 12:24pm
PHX Corphttp://kotaku.com/sources-warner-bros-knew-that-arkham-knight-pc-was-a-1714915219 Sources: Warner Bros. Knew That Arkham Knight PC Was A Mess For Months07/01/2015 - 11:49am
Andrew EisenIf you do, I hope you can provide some examples of people (again, other than random no-name numbnuts on Twitter) who are genuinely trying to dictate what should and should not be allowed so far as themes, topics, language, plot devices, etc. go.07/01/2015 - 9:43am
MattsworknameI'd go into why I think it's a bigger problem then most realize, but nows not the time really. I'll catch up with everyone later07/01/2015 - 9:42am
Andrew EisenThat's the thing though, rarely is anyone (again, other than random numbnuts on Twitter) attempting to dictate what can and cannot be said or done.07/01/2015 - 9:39am
Andrew Eisen"Don't write rape scenes" is being offered as advice (along with reasons for that advice) not a mandate.07/01/2015 - 9:37am
MattsworknameOh, on that last one andrew I wasn't talking about the article, I was being more general, lately it seems like all the news and media is trying to decide what is and isn't proper to say. Thats what i was refering to.07/01/2015 - 9:37am
Andrew EisenPerhaps you should consider reading the entire article. Despite quotes you can pull from the intro and conclusion, the author isn't arguing that you can't or shouldn't be allowed to cover a certain topic.07/01/2015 - 9:35am
MattsworknameOne of the things I hate right now is that people are trying to be the deciders of what is and isn't proper to be said. It's political correctness to a level that makes me angry.07/01/2015 - 9:29am
Mattsworknamemake them, i just tell peopel that I think what they did sucked. Just cause I dont like what they did, doesn't mean I can tell them "You shouldn't wrtie that" cause thats just another step on the way to telling them "YOU CANT WRITE THAT".07/01/2015 - 9:24am
MattsworknameNo, but you or I aren't the one to tell someone else what they can or cannot do beyond EXTREMELY narrow limits. Telling a person then shouldn't write something or say something. I may hate certain movies or music, doesn't mean I dont' tell peopel not to07/01/2015 - 9:23am
E. Zachary KnightHasbro is taking steps to fix its Dinosaur gender issues. http://io9.com/the-jurassic-world-dinosaur-toys-are-clever-girls-again-171513589607/01/2015 - 9:20am
TechnogeekImagine that level of accuracy, only applied to something that has actually caused physiological and psychological trauma in more cases than just whatever the equivalent of the CD-i Zelda games would be.07/01/2015 - 8:40am
TechnogeekThat's the issue I see as well, E. To put it in terms anyone reading this site will likely understand: you know how any time video games show up on TV, they feature absurdly outdated 3D graphics and/or audio from the Intellivison era?07/01/2015 - 8:40am
InfophileWell, you CAN go to a crowded streetcorner and tell everyone who passes by your social security number and bank account PIN, but you shouldn't. Is that censorship?07/01/2015 - 8:36am
E. Zachary KnightSo if it is going to turn out to be a bad scene, why even bother writing it?07/01/2015 - 8:07am
E. Zachary KnightMatts, Goth, The article, and others I have read making the same conclusion, state that most people fail in their attempts to write rape scenes without being overly offensive or overly incompetent in their attempt.07/01/2015 - 8:07am
Adam802http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Ex-Sen-Leland-Yee-may-be-headed-for-a-plea-deal-6358941.php07/01/2015 - 7:12am
Adam802Possible plea deal in Yee case: http://www.mercurynews.com/crime-courts/ci_28408532/leland-yee-case-plea-deal-appears-likely07/01/2015 - 7:11am
MattsworknameInfo, Im with goth on this, the moment people start saying "You can but you shouldnt" thats a slow slide into censorship07/01/2015 - 6:05am
 

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