Xbox 360 Failure Rate? Do the Math

July 6, 2007 -
Now that Microsoft has done the right thing about the Xbox 360's rampant hardware problems, one key question remains:

What is the failure rate for the system? MS won't say. The Seattle Times quotes MS games boss Robbie Bach (left):
Suffice it to say that with a billion-dollar charge and the focus we're putting on this that it's a meaningful number.

While normal console failures are apparently in the sub-5% range, some reports have estimated that 360's throw the red rings at a rate as high as 33%.

Here are the numbers that are known. The Times (and other sites) are reporting that MS has shipped 11.6 million Xbox 360's to date, but the failure rate remains a mystery. The addition of a three-year warranty for the rings of death failure is expected to cost MS a cool billion dollars, so:
(11,600,000 * X) * Y = 1,000,0000,000

...where 11.6m is the number of systems shipped; X is the failure rate and Y is the total cost to MS per replaced unit. This works out to:
Y=86/X 

Now, math is not especially GP's strong suit, but if each repair (Y) costs MS $100, that translates to a staggering failure rate of 86%.

At $200, the failure rate is 43%. At $300 it's 29%. At $400, it's 22%

At the high end, the $400 repair cost on a 22% failure rate is very unlikely. Since that is the current system's MSRP, why bother to repair?  They could just send you a new 360 to replace your dead one.

On the other end, the 86% scenario seems pretty extreme (perhaps not if you're one of the unfortunates who have lost multiple 360's to the dreaded rings).

There is a lot of behind-the-scenes stuff we can't know here. But, based on the numbers, a failure rate between 29% and 43% would not be unreasonable. So maybe those 33% reports aren't so far off the mark, after all.

Digg!

Comments

CONTACT SEC.GOV CONTACT INVESTORS PAGES RELEASE THE TRUTH! I NOW AWAIT MY FOURT RETURN TO GO BACK TO MC ALLEEN TEXAS WITH IS NOT MICROSOFT BUT A COMPANY CALLED JABIL JABIL.COM THEY RECENTLY PURCHASED A COMPANY IN INDIA? YOU KNOW THE PEOPLE YOU TALK TO WHEN YOU HAVE A PROBLEM!! IF ONE XBOX360 FAILS THEY ALL WILL? MICROSOFT CANT WAIT UNTILL YOUR THREE YEARS IS UP CAN YOU?

MAJORS@XBOX.COM BACH@360.COM KEEP THESE CLOWNS CHECKING THEIR EMAIL. THEY ARE MAKING MILLIONS WHILE WE COMPLAIN?

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Check out the video they have on the page.

Cheers

Marko Fando
 
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james_fudgeyeah we covered that03/27/2015 - 4:41pm
Matthew Wilsonhttp://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2015/03/13-year-old-minecraft-player-confesses-to-swatting-police-say/ not surprised.03/27/2015 - 3:51pm
Matthew WilsonI know most of my friends first saw robotech when it was on Toonami in the mid 90s, but it is possible that a fan who watched it in the 80s are in a position to do it.03/27/2015 - 1:04pm
Andrew EisenRobotech was mid 80s. Fans of the show (who were kids when it aired) are my age and older.03/27/2015 - 1:01pm
Matthew Wilsontiming. anime only really became widely known in the US in the mid 90s. if we assume it was mostly kids watching it, they still wouldnt be high enough in managment to be given full creative control yet. it would still be another 5 to 10 years for that.03/27/2015 - 12:59pm
Andrew EisenI agree. Now what makes you think that there is no one in power who cares about (or has the ability to) make a good adaptation?03/27/2015 - 12:47pm
Matthew Wilsonits not about pratice, it is about people who understand it getting in to positions of power.03/27/2015 - 12:34pm
Matthew Wilsonallot of the comic book characters that have been turned in to good movies started in the 70s or earlier.03/27/2015 - 12:32pm
Andrew EisenWell, if it really does take two generations of practice to get it right, we'll never get good live action adaptations of anime if no one starts making them.03/27/2015 - 12:31pm
Andrew EisenWhat have you seen that would make you say that?03/27/2015 - 12:30pm
Matthew WilsonIt took 2 genarations of comic book reader before we got good comic book movies. I imagine that will be the case for anime as well.03/27/2015 - 12:28pm
Matthew Wilson@AE yes if they have people that understand the content give it a shot, but as far as I can tell that does not look like it is happening in this case.03/27/2015 - 12:26pm
Andrew EisenI understand the skepticism but I don't think "this will never work" and "no one should even bother" are very healthy attitudes.03/27/2015 - 12:11pm
Andrew EisenWhy would you doubt that? A lot of writers are my age and older, the perfect age to be fans of the content. All I'm saying is it's not impossible to get a good Robotech movie. In fact, it's more likely today than any other time.03/27/2015 - 12:11pm
Matthew Wilson@AE the difference is in the case of marvel the writers and directors clearly understand the source content. I doubt many of any of them are that way with robotech, or any anime for that matter.03/27/2015 - 11:10am
MaskedPixelantehttp://www.playstationtrophies.org/news/news-15838-Sony-Cuts-the-Price-of-PlayStation-TV-Today.html Sony cuts the price of the Vita TV in the UK, still wont force developers to make their stuff compatible with it.03/27/2015 - 10:49am
Andrew EisenMechaCrash - It's true, there are a lot of examples of crap adaptations. But there are increasing numbers of great adaptations such as the Marvel movies. That said, it's certainly going to be an uphill battle at Sony, especially with Tom Rothman around.03/27/2015 - 10:45am
ZippyDSMleeOh live action crap...I dunno with hollywood being stuck in the 90s grimdarkblack mode I can not see how anything would work well other than SNK or Akira.. then again Akira is a bit of head trip...03/27/2015 - 10:11am
MechaCrashI meant Hollywood in general. If they did a Robotech movie, it'd just be a slightly tweaked Macross, because usually when people talk about Robotech, they just mean the first third. Nobody cares about the Masters/Southern Cross or Invid/MOSPAEDA stuff.03/27/2015 - 9:36am
ZippyDSMleeYes Macross is good..... robotech....not so much..... Now Pizza Cats that's the definitive TV dub, if not best dub ever I'd put it up there with COwboy Bebop just becuse the Pizza Cats dub is fun as heck and crazy,Medabots and Fighting Foodons are decent.03/27/2015 - 9:20am
 

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