Newsweek's Croal is Talking Recall for Xbox 360

Newsweek's Croal is Talking Recall for Xbox 360

July 11, 2007
Explain yourself or issue a recall for the Xbox 360.

That's how Newsweek's N'Gai Croal put it to Microsoft, and we must agree.

Writes Croal:
Did Microsoft's zeal to have the Xbox 360 both launch first... cause it to cut corners... resulting in the current debacle? What, precisely, are the factors causing Xbox 360s to fail? What is the failure rate?

In the absence of full and forthright answers to these questions - it is our firm belief that Microsoft should strongly consider a product recall... We have not arrived at this position lightly...

It took Microsoft months to acknowledge the scope of the problem... Second, there are several highly anticipated games shipping this fall... It's going to be hard for Halo 3 fanboys... when their Xbox 360s are in the shop... Third, absent a definitive statement from Microsoft about precisely when it identified this design flaw and rectified it, it's reasonable to assume that there are still thousands of Xbox 360s in stores with this design flaw. 

Comments

Why Microsoft Will Not Issue A Recall or Explanation: Because either way they go in that sense, they are effectively admitting: "We f**ked up". No matter how you look at it, thats how it is. Extending a warranty makes them look good. Product Recall... Well, look at Chinese Toothpaste. Bad for PR. Very Bad. Thats why you will not see a Public Explanation nor a Recall.
Random D, very well written. Same goes to Croal.
@ Quiet

30% to 40% rates of catostraphic failure within the first 1.5 years of release are not usual, normal, or professional. I say 30% to 40% because that is what the reporting thus far has revealed. We can only look to this reporting because Microsoft seems too scared to reveal the actual figures. That said, the Billion dollar warranty allocation combined with Microsoft's statements regarding the planned allocation of those funds almost guarantees that Microsoft expects a failure rate of at least 30%.

30% is a truly stunning and nearly unprecedented rate of catostraphic failure for any name brand product. It's true that many products suffer from problems, bugs, issues, or defects. Most of these issues don't leave the product completely unusable. The 360s defect always results in Catastrophic Failure. By Microsoft's own admission, this failure can cause so much damage as to make the unit not worth fixing.

You also make a number of entirely groundless assumptions. You suggest it's just a matter of tight tolerances and that there are multiple causes for the failures. The evidence from those who've torn down over-heated systems sharply contradicts your opinions. But really, we can only guess as to the actual cause of the over-heating. Microsoft refuses to discuss the cause(s) of failure, the rate of failure, or the likelihood of failure in any given grouping of systems.

Microsoft has little credibility on this issue. Microsoft's top management told bald faced lies regarding the failure rate as recently as this past month. Until this past week, Microsoft's management continued to say that the 360 failure rate was within the 3% to 5% industry standard. Quite obviously, this was not accurate then or now. They knew this statement was a lie when they said it, yet they continued to tell this tale.

All said, Microsoft can only be credited with a Single professional and responsible action during this entire debacle. That action of course is the extension of the 360 warranty.

But for Microsoft to be truly responsible and professional, they will need to go on the record as to the exact reason and cause of the failures, the lot numbers most likely to fail, the lot numbers which have been redesigned, and the likelihood of failure for those systems which still suffer the defect.

If Microsoft opened up regarding those issues, perhaps some of us would change our opinion regarding the calls for a general recall. But Microsoft's refusal to clear this air leads us to to believe the worst. This "worst" is that every single 360 is defective. That every single 360 will eventually fail because of this problem. And that Microsoft is only holding back on a recall because it would cost them more money than a Warranty extension. This because some proportion of 360's are so rarely used that they are not likely to fail within the 3 year period. By not fixing those systems, Microsoft will save money.
Xbox 360 is a purpoose designed and built device with billions of dollars of investment behind it. No "shortcuts" were taken in the design process, just the normal time and budget constraints. Microsoft has said that there are a multitude of factors that could cause red-rings-of-death, and I take that at face value.

In any case, armchair console builders like Croal ought to back away - because if they really understood, they'd be in that business instead of just writing about it. If Microsoft was to explain all the identified failure modes, nobody would really care about the esoteric details. What I as a consumer want to know is, "will my device be available when I want it?", and a warranty is a good indicator of confidence in that.

Folks, there is no such things as perfect products, and complex products have subtle and complex failures. I doubt you'll ever see any batch number or particular detail that is "the cause" - just a set of possibilities that occasionally combine in a "perfect storm". These things aren't built like Legos - chips are made on wafers hundreds at a time - any one of which could have some subtle difference from the others that, when placed into a complex system with other parts having similar types of subtle differences happens to produce a bit more heat or interference or...something... than expected.

The most that could be argued is that the Xbox 360 was built with slightly too tight tolerances for these natural variations, which if anything shows a mentality of greater attention to detail rather than one of taking shortcuts.

Croals hack writing certainly doesn't require anywhere near as much effort or thought as building a console, and his half-assed analysis of the marketplace ought to be subject to exactly the same sort of recall he advocates. Justify how and why he is qualified to make multi-billion dollar market recommendations in a large publication, and the possible damage that would do to the entire game industry - or get fired. Comparisons of possible failures of a strictly luxury device to defective cars in which people die are not acceptable.

This mentality that everything must be perfect or legal liability ensues is ridiculous, and the press needs to stop advocating it. In all seriousness, it makes the prices of everything go up without adding value to the consumer.

Croal could at least enable talkback on his own column, or is he just too chicken to face real analysis of what he has to say?
@ Zippy

The industry has been and likely will be again friendly with consumers. The thing is that right now the strength of the notion of propriety and physical media.

Here's the solution to the problem: all of the systems have a hard drive these days, so give them all rewritable media drives and let consumers take a game disc, install it on the machine (therefore making it executable without using the media) and also allow them to use the machine to burn backup copies. Hell, just let people download the games from these omnipresent online services and then burn 'em to discs.
Tom
they never will (to many IP and CP involved hard where wise,if they would sub the tech out like DVD players thats a different matter but prepriority formats are draconian like that)its just a matter of fact best to move on to what the indutry can do.

Look at hat EB and GS did with highly copyable PC games they have decided not to sale in used PC games anymore,because of that I have not bothered to buy anythign from them again.

of course with the internet they could make it where games are not copy protected and you can run backups as long as all games are registered but the down side is locking the system when a "copied"game comes up and it not working off line....the industry will never be "friends" with the consumer but we can make them less mean and arrongat.
@ Zippy

The "industry" needs to let us make legitimate copies of our legally purchased games and it needs to allow those games to play on their consoles. Fair use is a legitimate consumer concern.
last I checked its 20 a disc to have them replace it,its obvious MS aint eating enough anal cakes it sent out at launch,the indutry itself and retailers need to do a better job at replacing bad discs,if a small fee was involved 5-10$ you go down to your local EB/GS and swap a game out if its in stock.

Industry needs to not be so anti consumer,if they can cut maybe .05-3% off their prices to the chains and then the consumers pay 3-9$ to ahve a disc swapped everyone wins,plus it can boost sales a bit when they come to the store to get a game swapped.

ad your thoughts of it all here
http://www.gamepoliticsforums.com/showthread.php?p=45449
Well, I don't know how I feel about this or how to explain to people that I have never, ever had a problem with my 360. I guess those of us unaffected should start posting to show there are indeed plenty of working 360's. My first console was a launch console, which worked perfectly and April 29, 2007 it was traded in for an Xbox 360 Elite which hasn't even froze in a game. No problems to report here.

How does a three year warranty not cover it? The 3 red lights are from the gpu losing its connections to the circuit board due to overheating (as far as I have been told and read). The new 65 nanometer chips will be cooler, and there also have been changes inside since launch to help fix the problem. (Check out Llama's pics of the original and Elite taken apart) If a hardware problem doesn't show up in three years than I would think its a safe bet that it might be ok. The warranty is an unprecedented attempt to go above and beyond what they have to do, and I think everyone will be safe with that.
I think a recall is probably in order. I say this because I believe the flaw will probably kill most of the 360s made to date.

Before getting to the justification for a recall, ask yourself, why does Microsoft refuse to reveal what the actual problem is?

When a car manufacturer extends the warranty of a car, do they ever refuse to discuss the cause? Of course not. They'll say, we are extending the warranty on the Maibitsu Monstrosity because sludge tends to form in the engine.

Car companies sometimes choose to extend a warranty rather than recall a car. This is mostly done when the fixing the problem would be extremely expensive, eg. a faulty engine. Still, they detail the problem to their customers.

I think Microsoft is hiding the cause because revealing it would admit an awful truth that would cost them even more money. This truth being that all 360s are doomed to a quick death. But that this time of death is directly proportional to the amount of time a given system is used.

I base my hypothesis on some analysis done by hardware gurus who've investigated faulty systems. Most (if not all) of the overheated systems they've looked at have accumulated large amounts of dust on the heat sinks and components.

They also say that the 360 is almost like a vacuum cleaner. The system's fans suck in dust, but don't allow this dust to exit the system. This dust is nearly impossible to clean without opening the case and voiding the warranty.

Once enough dust has accumulated, the heat sinks become insulated by the dust and are no longer able to properly cool the system. This results in a very hot system causing a variety of hardware problems. These issues have been well documented; warped motherboards, broken solder connects, chips which have popped out of their sockets.

Because this dust only accumulates when the system fans are active, the amount of time a system is turned will greatly impact any given system's final expiration date.

I suspect Microsoft knows that a fairly large percentage of 360's aren't used very often. Perhaps as many as 30 to 40% are owned by adults who only play their systems a few hours per month.

Were MS to recall every system, most of these owners who rarely use their systems would send their units in for retrofitting. This would cost MS far more than the Billion dollars they've allocated for the warranty extension.

So by extending the warranty and not recalling every unit, MS is avoiding the cost of fixing units which are just as bound to suffer a red ring failure, but probably not within the 3 year warranty extension period.
@ Timmay!

Considering what you've said I still don't see anything to warrant a recall. The quote is from someone editorializing and admitting assumptions.

“absent a definitive statement from Microsoft about precisely when it identified this design flaw and rectified it, it’s reasonable to assume that there are still thousands of Xbox 360s in stores with this design flaw”

MS has claimed that there are general problems that lead to the three red ring fault. There's no claim of a particular "design flaw," a smoking gun if you will, that would warrant a recall, neither has a third party found that flaw to support a class action lawsuit.

However you slice it all of the evidence is anecdotal. Hardware is always going to eventually fail. The longevity of the parts is, I would imagine, based on estimated average usage. Is it possible that MS greatly underestimated the amount that XBox 360's would be used? Probably. Is it possible that they made faulty assumptions about how people would power the XBox 360s? Probably. I imagine that they have a disclaimer somewhere that says to plug the thing directly into the wall - as do most electronic devices.

I'm guessing that when you look at it the units that are seeing the most problems belong to people who keep them on nearly non-stop and also have them plugged into power chords of questionable quality. Considering the expanded functionality of the XBox 360 MS should have assumed that the machines would remain powered on far longer then any other console to date and they should also have designed hardware based on the lowest common denominator as far as third party electronics equipment is concerned. Does this mean that they need to recall the systems? No, because there is no fatal fault. What are they going to fix?

Extending the warranty is, basically, saying that they produced a system that doesn't have the longevity it was intended to have because of a variety of reasons. Fine. It's a good-faith step that they took because everyone realized that they dropped the ball somewhere along the line.

If there's a repeatable, verifiable hardware fault that MS has refused to repair - and I'm not talking a general "it be broken!" - then it's the right and the duty of consumers to launch a class-action lawsuit. Otherwise I would rather see MS's money going back into the industry in the form of new games, new peripherals and new hardware then into the pockets of lawyers and PR drones as they defend against lawsuits already doomed to failure.
@Gameboy and Gnaget

The problem, and potential legal issue, is still this, how many potentially defective 360's are sitting on store shelves right now? How many people have potentially defective 360's sitting in their living room?

The failure rate is well over 3%, and it's not just anecdotale evidence from the "guy who knows the guy who knows the guy who does shipping for UPS for a place that repairs 360's", this is coming straight from the places that fix the 360's. On top of that, there are a number of first hand reports of people who've bought "brand new" 360's, and having them fail within a a few weeks, which means there's still new, unopened 360's with defective hardware sitting on store shelves.

MS has already admitted there's a hardware problem with the 360's, and they HAVE to have some rough estimate of how many faulty systems were shipped, which technically means they're allowing a product that's known to have a hardware failure to remain on store shelves. The situation is ripe for a class action lawsuit against MS for knowningly selling a defective product.
what happens after that 3 years? People might desire a system that will last longer than that. If they did a recall and fixed the problem the life of the system would be greatly increased.
They offered a 3 year warranty, I don't see why anything more is required. Seems they already did the right thing to me
I know I'm probably one of hundreds (if not thousands) who are holding off buying an Xbox 360 until there's more definitive proof that the unit I buy today has had what ever underlying issues exist addressed.

Honestly, of the 3 "next-gen" consoles, the 360 is probably the one I am willing to buy first. But, there's too big a question mark about product quality for me to buy one right now.
It depends on what the true rate of failure is. If it's only 3% a recall is ridiculous. With the present press on the 360, I doubt it's only 3% though. If its 30%, a recall maybe more reasonable, but I wouldn't hold my breath. If its 50%+, a recall would be necessary. That would be an insane failure! However, I doubt its 50%+.

In the end, it comes down to cost. Does it cost them more to recall the consoles, or extend the warranty and replace the broken ones. My bet is that the extended warranty is cheaper. The big question is: have they fixed it yet?

@ Terrible Tom

I agree. Microsoft does seem to be blaming the consumers for the failures. Either you're not letting it ventilate, or your surge protector fucked up the system. That just sounds ridiculous. Besides, what kind of electronic equipment isn't compatible with a surge protector? In my book, saying that surge protectors are the problem is actually saying that its a faulty design.
@Tom (and not Terrible Tom):

It's right there in the article:

"absent a definitive statement from Microsoft about precisely when it identified this design flaw and rectified it, it’s reasonable to assume that there are still thousands of Xbox 360s in stores with this design flaw"

If ANY manufactured product is found to be widely defective, even if it's not a "life or death" matter, the product should be recalled. Keeping a known defective product on store shelves is bad business, and could lead to another class action lawsuit against MS AND any store that would still sell it.
I agree with him 100%. They seem to be pushing the blame onto console users by saying oh your not putting it in a well ventilated area, or your plugging it into a power surge and thats the problem. Why cant they just say that their product has flaws in its design and those flaws NEED to be fixed. Recall they systems, fix them, and give the consumers what they deserve. Everyone deserves a product that works at the VERY LEAST 95% of the time, preferably 99%(100% is an unreasonable request). And this product falls way below that line.
No way will they do a recall. The bad publicity would absolutely drive customers (potentially new and existing) back to Sony. I do believe though the industry needs to set better standards for both the hardware and software. I should not have to patch a game on the first day of purchase. I will say though I have never had any of my video game hardware fail or break and this includes products from all three companies.
Let me get this straight - they'll replace a defective XBox 360 free of charge, no posting costs or anything like that, they've given a public mea culpa about the whole debacle and people still want a recall? Isn't what they're doing better for customers then a recall? Correct me if I'm wrong - and I may well be completely wrong here - but doesn't a recall mean that any XBox 360 in the given serial number range is required to be sent back and replaced even if it's working fine?

We're not talking about rear differentials here, we're talking about a game console. Sure it sucks when they break but it's not life threatening and I, for one, would rather live with the knowledge that if my XBox 360 breaks - for whatever reason - within 3 years of purchase (or a good chunk of the life cycle of a modern console) I can toss it back to MS and have them dump a big bag of miracle money on it so it works again then smugly watch them organize a costly recall, likely rescind their current warranty extension and delay any potential cost cuts in order to recoup some of the billions they would have lost recalling the hardware.

Yes it took them too long to fix the problem but convincing any large company to spend money that it isn't explicitly required to spend is like trying to melt a glacier with a hair dryer.

Microsoft does a lot of things in the gaming arena that offend me to my very core and I'm looking, at every turn, for another reason to hate them but in this case it seems - unless I'm missing something and I really might be - that they've done a good job.
I just got mine in March (Guitar Hero 2 was the tipping point) and it's fine so far, but Rock Band and Assassin's Creed will give it a workout this holiday season. :P

What really pisses me off is that I bought a 3 year extended warranty from Future Shop when I bought it. I'm not mad that I bought it because it will save me a huge hassle if it does break, although the MS warranty extension kind of hurts it a bit. What I'm mad about is that I couldn't justify buying this console WITHOUT the warranty because it's probably going to break after my (old) warranty expires and I would've had to pay MORE than the store warranty cost me to send it back to MS. At least this way, I can walk into the store and they'll give me a new one, no questions asked.
From what I can tell launch boxes are more reliable than boxes produced 6 months after launch.
That's a great read, and it is just what M$ should do, but won't. It took them decades to admit that security is a concern in Windows, they'll admit a problem with the 360 when the 720s start breaking down.
Well I have read the current messages left by many people who do not support a recall on the xbox 360, but I can tell being an owner of a defective 360 and seeing that their are two other defective units on my block alone (one of which was purchased with in the last month) I would say Microsoft has a really big problem on their hands. After speaking with the rep at 1-800-my-xbox they are sending me a package to ship my console to them for a hardware failure (a conclusion we came to after the console displayed three blinking light around the power light). After going on many, many, sights it appears this is the same problem that everyone is experiencing. That would say to me that there is a real problem.

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DarkSaber: http://tinyurl.com/yl2vfw6 Here's the link, good for conspiracy theories.
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JDKJ: Leaders never follow. Followers never lead.
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DarkSaber: Anyone been following this Hadley Climatic Research Centre server hack story?
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ZippyDSMlee: AE:they feeding you well? I am enjoying win7 and heading to bed...uhg I need to get up early and start back to cleaning/painting blahg >< need tog et stuff done befor thanksgiving....
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BearDogg-X: 10 N. O. Who Dat?
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JDKJ: You should get Phil McCraken to help you spackle those banisters.
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mentor07825: Britain certainly does deserve it! And the French! God damn it, it was a hand ball!!!
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