Big Business: GTA IV Launch Will Top Halo 3

April 28, 2008 -
The Associated Press reports that Tuesday's GTA IV launch will be the biggest video game release of all time, easily topping the $300 million in first-week sales generated by Halo 3 in 2007.

The AP quotes Wedbush-Morgan financial analyst Michael Pachter:
The addressable market at launch is about 24 million consoles. So how many will sell in the first week or month or few months? Nine million. That’s the number. That’s about a 35 percent attach rate. By year’s end, it’ll be somewhere between 11 and 13 million because more consoles will be sold before the holidays.

Bloomberg offers a similar prediction, as well as an estimate from Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey that GTA IV will hit the $360 million mark during its first week at retail. Hickey summed it up for Bloomberg:
People are going to buy this game.

Comments

@Dark Sovereign

Aye, Halo 3 did the Flood justice, though I hate the shapeshifter Flood with the fury of a thousand suns! At least they react well to fire. >: D

I suppose another thing that added to the Flood's disturbing qualities is the real-time transformations from normal to Flood. Half-Life's headcrabs were similar in function and end-result, but at least with them, the poor victim's face was hidden.

If you have time to kill, (trying to avoid spoilers) go to the level with the light rings, where the massive Covenant vs. Flood fight is taking place. Find a former Elite that is now a flood form, and stand behind him. Be sure to study his shoulders and back carefully.

Anyways, I would rank the Flood above anything in GTA for disturbing factor. After all, from a purely philosophical standpoint, I'd rather be run over for the $20 in my pocket instead of having a Floodspore latch onto my head and NOMNOMNOM. Of course, I tend to have a rather vivid (and visceral) imagination concerning sci-fi. Call it a pitfall of one of my non-gaming hobbies.

I know 5 people that still own PS3s. All of them ended up buying 360s because the PS3, despite it's superior hardware, has a lack of games, and everyone else is playing on LIVE.

I wonder how many PS3 owners out there do not own 360s as well. I wonder if the PS3 market really offers more than 50% of consoles sold. My guess, once again anecdotal, is that many potential buyers of the PS3 version will be buying it for their xbox instead because they want to play it with their friends on LIVE.

I have to wonder just because I've never seen anyone that is an exclusive PS3 console owner.

@BrandonL337

Not that it matters, but I've played Halo 3. To it's credit, almost everything it did, it did very well. Easy and multi-functional controls that do different things in different contexts cuts down on cluttered button combinations to do simple tasks, and smearing several people in a warthog is as fun as ever.

However, it just doesn't do anything really new. It polishes everything it already does, but it doesn't really bring anything new. Sure, forge is spiffy, and saving the instant replay where you stickied your buddy as he was flying by on the man cannon is hilarious, but they don't contribute anything to the core gameplay.

Halo 3 also gave birth to Grifball, which is the best sport ever.

Anyways, as I asked above, please keep things civil. Acting snide is just adding fuel to the fire.

@Dark Sovereign

I scared the crap out of my friends when we did the floodship level through XBL. I had snagged the flamethrower and took the lead. When the Flood approached, I had said in my best psycho voice, "Buuurrrrnnnnnn...BURN FOR MEEE!!" I had forgotten that everything I said was going through the mic, and my friends had a very nervous laugh at my expense.

-- Back on topic --

The only way we'll know for sure is by simply waiting for the numbers tomorrow night. I wonder how many people are getting the bundle packages that come with a console and GTAIV. I've already got a 360 and PS3 thanks to my well-paying job (go to college, kids!), so I'll just be getting the game by itself.

@BrandonL337
I agree completely. Halo 3 may not have been revolutionary, and it may have been incredibly hyped, but at the very least it was polished far beyond what most devs seem to be capable of. As a major FPS fan (console and PC both-originally PC in fact) I quite enjoy it. What originally drew me to the series was the co-op play, but I also enjoy the multi- and single- player modes. Just because it has its fanboys and a lot of marketing doesn't mean it's bad.

As for the original topic: Sales figures have little to do with whether or not either game is any good. GTA as a series has a larger fanbase than Halo, and a significant number of them may not yet have a current-gen console. I'd be interested to see how console sales change (both PS3 and 360) at release. As for who the audience is, I'm not really sure what the age group shakedown is, but if you look at sales records for previous GTA games and the three Halo games (not sure where to find those exactly) I would say that is the most relevant factor here.

@Steve

I was exclusively PS3 for a long while until after the 360 Elites came out, and I had bought the 360 mainly for Bioshock and Mass Effect. Halo 3 rolled along, as well as Ace Combat 6, though I only play with two or three friends I know.

I'm getting the 360 GTAIV for the DLC, since I'm a sucker for added content, but if there were no DLC, or the content were equally shared, I would get the PS3 version. About every twenty minutes, my 360 sounds like a badly maintained 747 trying to take off, but a turkey gets sucked into one of the engines, and the framerate tanks. After about a minute of that horrible junk, it calms down and goes back to normal.

@Arad

I had that same problem. It's died down now though. Maybe it's that new chip?

I agrre with Masterchief117 Halo 3 came out only 360, GTA IV comes out both, But I think GTA IV will be better, Ibought halo 3 when it came out I will buy GTA IV this tuesday 4/29/08

The GTA series can also use controversy to draw sales. HALO can't do that. So yeah, combined with the fact that GTA is available on multiple consoles, it doesn't surprise me that it would sell more than HALO.

@Steve
I've heard of a number of people who gave up on the 360 and got a ps3 (unfortunatly some people suffered from RROD multiple times), I don't know too many that has both... mostly just one or the other. Common opinion there is that its too damn expensive to get both systems... most of the poeple i know that have a second next-gen console got themselves a wii in addition to their PS3/360... the wii is more affordable than either of those consoles and makes it even harder to buy the third console. I think this is part of lead to so much talk of console wars; the last generation it was easier for people to get more than one or all 3 systems but this generation a lot of gamers feel like they need to choose... Combine that with fanboyish nature and you get console wars; a bunch of fanboys who are really just trying to justify their "Choice" of gaming console

@BrandonL337
I don't know, sounds to me like it's less "Halo hate" and more like "Meh, Halo is overrated"... it was great for a while but i got bored with it months ago (a few new things but it was mostly just more of the same) and i don't know that many people who still play it as much as they used to (and i noticed that before smash bros came out and started being the game of the month)... really, the fanboys can be quite annoying; really, they are so quick to make the claim that Halo3 is better despite the fact that they have yet to play GTAIV... and now they act like the article is claiming GTAIV is better, when all it is stating the unbiased analyses have how the sales figures will work out. Really, they're are a lot of better games out there.

@monte

I get what your saying, even so a lot of games get boring after a while even with multiplayer the only games that I played that didn't do this were: GH3, Crackdown, and Dead Rising (altough to be fair I only recently started playing that again after getting the Real bad ending and now my tv burst a bulb or something and now I can't see when it turns night /cries)
and for my brother it's Oblivion and he's put 90+hours into like all 5 of his saves, it scares me

To clarify around 90+ hours into EACH of his saves.

@Arad

What in the hell have you been doing to your 360 and how on earth did you manage to get a turkey inside of it.

Oh, now it's IMMIGRATION, is it. First violence, then sex, then racism, and now immigration. They just don't stop.

It matters quite a bit that GTA is multi-platformed and Halo 3 was not. It's pretty pathetic to brag that one game outsold another when it had more platforms to sell to. Also, no one is an xbox fan boy (in my case, girl) for pointing that out. It's simply logic.

Of course, the rating of each game might make a difference. We'll have to see.
 
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Matthew WilsonIf you have not read http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/04/introducing-steam-gauge-ars-reveals-steams-most-popular-games/ you should. It is a bit stats heavy, but worth the read.04/16/2014 - 2:04pm
Matthew Wilsonthe issue is when is doesn't work it can screw over millions in new york city's case. more often than not it is better to let the free market run its course without market distortion.04/16/2014 - 9:36am
NeenekoTrue, and overdone stagnation is a problem. It is a tricky balance. It does not help that when it does work, no one notices. Most people here have benifited from rent controls and not even realized it.04/16/2014 - 9:23am
ZippyDSMleehttp://www.afterdawn.com/news/article.cfm/2014/04/15/riaa_files_civil_suit_against_megaupload04/16/2014 - 8:48am
ZippyDSMleeEither way you get stagnation as people can not afford the prices they set.04/16/2014 - 8:47am
Neenekowell, specifically it helps people already living there and hurts people who want to live there instead. As for 'way more hurt', majorities generally need less legal protection. yes it hurt more people then it helped, it was written for a minority04/16/2014 - 8:30am
MaskedPixelantehttp://torrentfreak.com/square-enix-drm-boosts-profits-and-its-here-to-stay-140415/ Square proves how incredibly out of touch they are by saying that DRM is the way of the future, and is here to stay.04/16/2014 - 8:29am
james_fudgeUnwinnable Weekly Telethon playing Metal Gear http://www.twitch.tv/rainydayletsplay04/16/2014 - 8:06am
ConsterTo be fair, there's so little left of the middle class that those numbers are skewing.04/16/2014 - 7:42am
Matthew Wilsonyes it help a sub section of the poor, but hurt both the middle and upper class. in the end way more people were hurt than helped. also, it hurt most poor people as well.04/16/2014 - 12:13am
SeanBJust goes to show what I have said for years. Your ability to have sex does not qualify you for parenthood.04/15/2014 - 9:21pm
NeenekoSo "worked" vs "failed" really comes down to who you think is more important and deserving04/15/2014 - 7:04pm
NeenekoThough I am also not sure we can say NYC failed. Rent control helped the people it was intended for and is considered a failure by the people it was designed to protect them from.04/15/2014 - 7:04pm
NeenekoIf they change the rules, demand will plummet. Though yeah, rent control probably would not help much in the SF case. I doubt anything will.04/15/2014 - 1:35pm
TheSmokeyOnline gamer accused of murdering son to keep playing - http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Crime/2014/04/15/21604921.html04/15/2014 - 11:50am
Matthew Wilsonyup, but curent city rules do not allow for that.04/15/2014 - 11:00am
ZippyDSMleeIf SF dose not start building upwards then they will price people out of the aera.04/15/2014 - 10:59am
Matthew Wilsonthe issue rent control has it reduces supply, and in SF case they already has a supply problem. rent control ofen puts rent below cost, or below profit of selling it. rent control would not fix this issue.04/15/2014 - 10:56am
NeenekoRent control is useful in moderation, NYC took it way to far and tends to be held up as an example of them not working, but in most cases they are more subtle and positive.04/15/2014 - 10:24am
PHX CorpBeating Cancer with Video Games http://mashable.com/2014/04/14/steven-gonzalez-survivor-games/04/15/2014 - 9:21am
 

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