Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter loves to make predictions, and when he does, he goes big. Two of the biggest games this year – Modern Warfare 3 and Battlefield 3 – are set to launch in North America and Pachter has a big number that he believes both games will hit. Pachter believes that Modern Warfare 3 and Battlefield 3 will generate more than $1.4 billion combined by the end of the year.
Speaking to Forbes, Pachter said that EA and Activision's shooter franchises will account for around 15 percent of all revenue in the fourth quarter of this year. Pachter further claims that Modern Warfare 3 will account for the lion's share of that figure, selling an estimated 16 million units worldwide versus 8 million for Battlefield 3. That trend, Pachter further predicts, will continue in 2012 with Modern Warfare 3 selling an additional 8 million units and Battlefield 3 selling right around 2 million.
"I'd guess that around half of the console copies of Battlefield 3 will be bought by people who also buy Modern Warfare 3, so around 2 to 3 million will buy both," Pachter tells Forbes. "I don't see much cannibalization of the titles."
Battlefield 3 launches tomorrow, while Modern Warfare 3 will be released worldwide on November 8. It will be interesting to see how well Battlefield 3 does. It should be noted that the game will not be available on Steam. How that impacts sales remains to be seen. EA is offering the game on its own digital distribution service Origin.