Where Politics And Video Games Collide

The calculation above looks like a pretty good approximation to me. I think it takes into account all the factors that really matter.

As for the refunds of previous repairs, the calculations above Do address that issue. After all, each of those previous repairs were a portion of the of the 11.6 million units sold to date.

As for future systems. The Microsoft statement plainly states that Microsoft is changing the design to address the problems. Consider that it takes awhile for newly built machines to make it from the factory to the retail channel (at least a month if traveling by boat). I strongly suspect that Microsoft is currently building systems with a new design. I think they're hoping and preying that the new systems won't have nearly the return rate as the current design.

While the calculation above doesn't take into account multiple failures of a specific unit, I don't think that factor would impact the numbers very much. After all, many of the people to have suffered multiple malfunctions have received new units. It's certainly possible that Microsoft doesn't even try to repair badly over-heated units.

Overall, the calculations look shocking accurate. It was certainly the right thing for Microsoft to do. On the other hand, a class action suit was probably just about to happen. And while Microsoft can certainly afford this billion dollar charge, it is the admission of a massive failure by the company. It also makes clear that Microsoft has been boldly telling outright lies about 360 failure rates for some time.